Well, the last two weeks certainly have been tumultuous. But this weekend is a good time to take stock and figure out where we go from here.
Over the years I’ve learned that Apple does not follow the market, it tries to lead the market. And, with megahits like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad, it is impossible to ignore their success.
However, it isn’t always successful, which is why we find ourselves in the position we are in now. And, keep in mind that it is US, not Apple, that are in a difficult position. Apple’s DNA (and vast bank account) insulates them from clamor and controversy in the marketplace.
Yesterday, as I was thinking about this blog, I sent an email to my contacts at Apple asking if they would either announce a timetable of when we could see the next “major release” of Final Cut Pro X, or whether Apple was considering re-releasing Final Cut Studio (3) to the market.
Apple did not respond to my email; which I’ve also learned is an answer in itself.
So, the decision is not up to Apple, they have already told us what they are going to do. The decision is up to us – how will we respond?
THE MARKET
Apple has opened up a huge new market to video editing – I call it the “middle market” – people that need more than iMovie, but don’t need the vast capabilities of Final Cut Studio (3).
This is a good thing, I think, because ultimately it will give many of us work as these users push up against the barriers of FCP X and need to accomplish tasks that can’t currently be met with FCP X.
I remember the desktop publishing wars of the 1980’s. Graphics designers did not go away when our computers starting displaying fonts and images. What happened was that the graphics design tools got better and designers with creativity and skill got more work.
The situation is the same today. Creativity and story-telling are still in demand, but the audience and tools continue to evolve.
OUR CHOICE
As I see it, we all have three choices:
1. Convert to Final Cut Pro X
2. Do nothing, at least for a while
3. Switch to a different editing program
CONVERTING
For single editor shops that work exclusively with tapeless formats and principally output to files, Final Cut Pro X is very attractive.
I am getting many emails each day from people that are working with it and are pleased with their results.
For non-mission-critical projects, the current version of FCP X may meet your needs.
ABSTAINING
As I’ve written for years, however, even if Apple released an all-singing, all-dancing, rock-star of a program, I would still counsel waiting until a dot One release.
This is especially true for large shops, edit houses with massive amounts of existing material that they need to repurpose, or editors working on deadlines that cannot be missed.
Apple’s emphasis on secrecy during development in order to maximize surprise at launch means that the initial release of a product is almost never stable enough for serious use.
As examples, FCP 4.0 didn’t stabilize until version 4.0.2, FCP 5 took until version 5.0.4 and, some would argue, 5.1.4 to become solid. FCP 6 took until version 6.0.2 (with four more versions after that), and FCP 7 is currently sitting at version 7.0.3. (And the sordid history of QuickTime releases and bug fixes is best left for a mature audience…)
As I’ve written many times in the past, waiting before upgrading is never a mistake. I tend to wait a few months before upgrading my production gear. However, at the same time, I will upgrade my testing gear to the latest version – and start to learn it – as soon as it is released.
There is no harm in waiting until FCP X starts to stabilize.
SWITCHING
The wild card in this whole equation is the cancellation of Final Cut Studio (3). Our decisions would be a lot easier if Apple had not forced our hand.
First, I am deeply saddened that Apple’s vaunted engineering prowess is unable to code a conversion utility from FCP 7 to FCP X. However, they say they can’t, so I believe them. (And, even if they can, they won’t; which works out to the same thing.)
This means that if you have a large number of FCP 7 projects that you have even a remote possibility of needing in the future, you would be foolish NOT to purchase a product that can read them.
Whether you go with Avid Media Composer and Automatic Duck, or Adobe Production Premium, you, your company, your media and your projects have a far greater priority than the political and emotional issues of supporting, or not supporting, the latest release of Final Cut Pro.
Protect yourself first.
Pick the software you are most comfortable working with. Hire an assistant editor to have them do tests to see how well your projects transfer from FCP 7 into it.
Both Avid and Adobe are running “Switcher” campaigns — which doesn’t surprise me. If I were doing their marketing I would do exactly the same thing. Take advantage of this special pricing – protect your assets.
Apple says FCP 7 will run on Lion. However, it would be foolish to expect it to run on every operating system in the future. At some point, you will need to convert your assets. The best time to do so is now while all your projects, media, and the software you are using is current.
Whether you want to convert your whole operation to a new platform depends upon many different factors; cost not the least of them.
But the first rule of business is to stay in business. Protect yourself. Make sure you can get access to your assets in the future.
LARRY’S RECOMMENDATION
For new Final Cut users, purchase FCP X and enjoy it. It has many good things to recommend it.
For existing Final Cut 7 users, it is too early to know what FCP X is really going to be. But it is also way too risky to bet the ranch on it.
Download FCP X and learn it, but be very cautious putting it into serious production.
I recommend you create a system for converting your FCP 7 assets to either Avid or Adobe.
Then, wait and see what Apple does with the next release of FCP X. For me, the next release, not the current one, will set the direction for the future.
But protect yourself now.
CONCLUSION
This event gives all of us a chance to stop and reflect on who we are and what we do.
The core of what I do, personally, is to train, teach, and inform. I do this across a wide variety of products and using a wide variety of media. My core value does not change with this update.
What changes are the subjects that I teach. And, as we all know, technology is a constantly evolving mix of old and new products.
Think about what YOU do – are you a Final Cut editor, OR are you an editor that uses Final Cut? Are you defined by the technology you use or the stories that you tell?
As you are deciding whether to convert, abstain, or switch, spend a few minutes thinking about who you are, what you do, and how you want to earn a living.
In the past, religious wars were fought over Apple vs. Avid. The new war is FCP 7 vs. FCP X. Like all wars, these battles create a flurry of impressive fireworks, but leave a bloody trail of destruction in their wake. And very rarely do they settle anything. Old tensions still simmer.
So, let’s slow down and take stock. Apple has given us an opportunity to make a choice. They aren’t going to change their direction, so we need to decide if we are comfortable where they are taking us.
And that choice is different for each one of us.
Let me know what you think.
Larry
61 Responses to Moving Forward
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Russ says:
July 2, 2011 at 7:11 pm
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Russ says:
July 2, 2011 at 7:41 pm
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Lachlan says:
July 2, 2011 at 10:11 pm
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Fred says:
July 2, 2011 at 11:48 pm
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David Cochran says:
July 3, 2011 at 4:08 am
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Russ says:
July 3, 2011 at 8:07 am
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Stuart says:
July 3, 2011 at 9:00 am
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Floris says:
July 3, 2011 at 9:41 am
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Walter Biscardi says:
July 4, 2011 at 9:04 am
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DavidH says:
July 4, 2011 at 9:43 am
← Older Comments Newer Comments →Phil,
You can hardly blame Apple for that.
They are a globa tradingl company influenced by how the banking system dictates terms and conditions. Do not forget their trading position may be influenced by the futures market and not necessarily the current US dollar vs. Australian dollar currency rate at that particular time.
You can hardly compare a multi billion dollar company to Larry Jordan and Associates who are just trying to make an honest living in a much comparatively small and reasonable way.
The same happens here for transacations in Europe where the Eurozone which may be potentially collapsing due to Greece, thus affecting both Germany and France who “prop up’ the Eurozone which in turn affects us in the UK who are members of the EEC. It is called the “knock on” effect and the innocent pay the price!!
The global economy is subject to the dubious economic practices of banks who of course pay their CEOs and other executives disproportionate salaries and bonuses which may not reflect their skill levels or competence.
Kris,
You can type on whatever you like with typographical errors included.
It is YOUR content that counts.
I really enjoy reading your comments.
Thank you!!!
Hi Larry. Thanks for a really well thought out post.
Personally, I think I’m moving to Avid. I’m not sure that I can wait on a vague and poorly communicated release timetable for my business future.
There will be pain in the transition, but I feel it’s best to get it sorted now and move on.
It seems odd that in targeting the enthusiast market, Apple is pitching X at $299. To me this seems overpriced. Maybe it will drop like a stone when they realise they are not making the volume of sales they expected.
Best wishes.
Hi Larry,
I don’t envy the position you are in but you’ve handled the current situation with the professionalism and honesty that we’ve come to expect from you. I’ve received your monthly newsletters, read you blog entries, bought your books and have always felt like I was learning something each time. I will take your advice to heart and protect myself, learn as much as I can in the future about Final Cut X and strongly consider switching to Premiere, and Media Composer.
(At work we currently have at least a dozen of projects started on good ol’ 7 so we’ll be hanging on to nursing that for a while and most likely set up a separate bay for X and beat it like a rag doll. If it turns out to be a dud, at least the machine’s still good.)
I’m more familiar with and always find myself using the various Adobe products in conjunction with the projects so they are receiving my initial nod. As long as I can satisfy the clients and feel confident in getting continued support and improvements from the Adobe folk, I will be content once the transition phase is complete if I decide to go in that direction. The writing is on the wall and it is futile to keep banging our heads on it because we feel abandoned about FCP Studio.
Many of us started with Final Cut Pro (It wasn’t even officially called 1 anywhere in the manual). I still have the programs and manuals from FCP 1-4 archived. Below is the opening paragraph and also the system requirements from the very first manual published in 1999 by Apple Computer, Inc. simply titled, “Final Cut Pro User’s Manual.” We’ve come a long way and we’ll certainly successfully ride the next wave out as well.
“Chapter 1
Getting Started
‘Welcome to Apple Final Cut Pro, the all-in-one solution for professional digital video editing,
compositing, and special effects. Final Cut Pro has been designed to work with professional
broadcast equipment in post-production environments. In addition, the program has been
thoughtfully designed to take advantage of leading-edge digital technologies, enabling you to
be creative as well as productive. Final Cut Pro supports Digital Video (DV) as well as all
QuickTime formats, including MJPEG and streaming video. Final Cut Pro includes powerful
production management capabilities in an intuitive interface. There are also powerful, builtin
effects generators as well as support for Adobe™
After Effects third-party plug-in filters.
With Final Cut Pro you can produce broadcast-quality productions in a flexible, easy-to-use
environment.”
“System Requirements
– A Power Macintosh G3/266 computer or faster (G3/300 or faster required for DV), or a
PowerBook G3/300 or faster
– Mac OS 8.6 or later
– 128 MB of RAM
– A CD-ROM drive
– A 6 GB, A/V (Audio/Video rated) drive (16 GB recommended)
– A true-color display
– ATI built-in video support on G3 models (required for DV)
– An Apple FireWire or other QuickTime-compatible digital video card for capturing video
from an external source or exporting video to tape
– The correct FireWire or device control cable and any additional cables you may need for
connecting your deck or camcorder to your computer”
P.S. Also hoping to take advantage of your X Seminar on the 12th if possible.
I have been editing for 20 years. I started with Avid Version 5 on the Mac when PCs could not handle video or graphics. Mac was King. Then Avid sent a letter they would not support the Mac based systems anymore. Our small post house (2 Avids, 2 Online bays) was in danger of having their non-linear department become obsolete an loose their investment. That year, Apple, who’s major seller of Macs was Avid, saw their business in jeopardy. At NAB they came out with a solution, Final Cut Pro. I remember people started following Apple guys down the floor of the convention floor who had editing systems on laptops. “ Are you editing on a laptop?”…“ yes sir we are and so can you”.
Apple, out of survival, invested in the future of their hardware.
Today, as a “forced” freelancer, have been using both Avids and FCP7 pretty much equally. Avid never stopped being the most reliable editing software out there. FCP has become very reliable and professional too.
With the “SWITCH” campaigns from Adobe and Avid, thankfully, both companies are seising the moment. And I am sooooo glad they do. I was fortunate to buy FC Studio 3 at the nick of time before they pulled it off the shelves. Now, and I have to thank Apple and the marketing wizards at Adobe and Avid, I will be able to own all 3 applications for about the same price of just the Avid MC 5.5. Not bad!
I wonder if Autodesk will follow suit with a Smoke version for $999.99. 🙂
Happy Editing! Again, thanks Larry for your insights.
David
Maybe you guys should have read the Steve Jobs “smoke and mirrors” tactics over a year ago.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/06/02/jobs_apple_tv_a_hobby_because_theres_no_market.html
I remember watching this at the time and thinking “Oh yes there is a game plan going on here”
Great remark– Apple TV “a hobby” wish the funds flowed in to my bank account.
Steve Jobs has merely added Final Cut 10 in to the overall Apple ‘eco” system plan whereby you will get locked in with all their tools/hardware/appliances then of course the iCloud which I am convinced he will turn in to a charging model some time in the future. It is really easy to see Steve’s utter disdain and contempt for “TV” in it’s present form if you watch the video. As a guess he will aim to gain control over visual content, lock it in like iTunes. Then make bucket loads of money in the process charging out for it via his iCloud system. Do you really think he spent over a billion dollars down in North Carolina for the fun of it??
Let’s not forget that a few years ago Adobe dropped Premiere on the Mac with little explanation or concern, and that Avid was thinking of ditching Mac support too.
http://www.independent-magazine.org/node/416
This might have little relevance to the whole FCPX debate but none of these companies are angels who unconditionally put the interests of their customers first.
Larry, I must also admit that I like a lot of things of the new FCPX and it’s interface. For one, I do like the skimmer and I do like the filmstrip view, as it gives a very good impression of what you have in your footage without the need to playback. Apple nailed this one for me.
The problem is I’m not sure wether I can thrust Apple to fix all the flaws. I’m 100% sure they won’t put all the Final Cut Pro features back, they shouldn’t, but I hope some of the major features will be back soon. I.e. XML import/export, send clip to motion, a 64-bit compressor with the same UI as Motion and FCPX, variable interval speed changes etc.
For now, I just stick with Final Cut Pro X for home projects and Adobe for professional work. I also would like to try out Avid, but I don’t like the prehistoric look and feel of their current software. I have the feeling that Media Composer 6 will be a major upgrade, 64-bit, and I hope they will announce it at IBC in September, which I’m attending.
Larry, I have heard from numerous beta testers and from some of those who were in the first presentation back in February. Like yourself, they all told me they submitted pages and pages of notes of things that would have to change in order for the product to be used in a professional video editing workflow. That is a workflow designed for collaboration between two to 100+ editors. A workflow where any one of 100 editors working in a facility could simply step in for someone who would be out of the office or just looking for some added creative spark from a colleague. A workflow that supported numerous freelancers sharing projects back and forth with the main company. A workflow that supported a workflow from tape to disc to edit and back to tape or disc or file format. A workflow that supported the industry standard tools such as reference monitors, project sharing with sound mixing and color correction programs.
To a person, they all told me “Apple didn’t listen.” Most told me they were hard pressed to find even one suggestion that had made it to the final public release of Final Cut Pro 10. So how many dozens, maybe hundreds of pages of notes were exchanged with Apple during the beta program that were simply ignored? Makes me wonder what the beta program was even for except to somehow get these production houses behind Apple’s concept of a new world in video editing. If that was truly their goal, they were sorely mistaken.
From what I can see Apple completely abandoned the discipline of editing for the “let’s make it super easy so they don’t have to think” style of editing. While this is an incredibly creative field, there is a discipline that separates a professional editor from everyone one else. From what I can see the basic mechanics used in organizing a project, managing your timeline(s) have been removed. I supposed it’s because Apple’s not big on mechanics, witness the ‘iCloud it just happens’ line and the move in Lion to make organization more of something that “just happens” so people don’t have to organize their materials.
So what we’re going to end up with is a generation of very creative people with very bad habits. Since they are not forced to manage their projects and assets, it just happens, it could create issues when trying to collaborate with other artists. In fact it could create issues if they want to get a job in a facility or a broadcast facility. Basic discipline and project management is key to working in a collaborative environment, even moreso than the creative skills.
It’s clear Apple had a vision and expected most to fall in line with the new product since it was so revolutionary and forward thinking. It’s clear to me that’s what the beta program was intended to do all along, not to solicit outside input. Apple will undoubtedly gain overall market share in terms of units sold, but from where I’m sitting, the emails / phone calls I’m getting, they are in a position to lose educational (colleges / universities) and post houses / broadcasters to both Adobe and Avid. I’ve yet to speak to a single editor / facility that we work with that will go along with FCP 10.
What Larry has suggested above all is that if you are using FCP 7 and are utilizing features and tools that are not found in FCP X then, of course, obviously, pick another system that will allow conversion of your FCP 7 projects.
And start this process soon.
I think what disturbs people about Avid is that it pushes other control boxes to fully harness its power. Controllers that cost more money. But it leaves you open to thinking, hmmmm, I am missing some ease by just using a keyboard and mouse to work with Avid.
Avid is still pushing a hybrid. The model started with completely proprietary controllers and Avid box technology and software that would not simply install on a Windows or linux box–before Apple was truly a hardware contender. Then Avid saw the necessity to offer Avid Lite installable on PC’s.
I know that custom edit controllers can also be configured for FCP 7 and Adobe Creative Suite 5.5 Production Premium but it is Avid that urges people to move beyond keyboard access from a personal computer installation.
But, since you know that Apple deliberately moved away from its own invention, the .fcp file to contain an entire project, then if you have a vast or substantial library you had better use this time to convert them!
But, Avid and Adobe are plainly committed to professional video production until we are using MediaHolography 2027.
FCP X is a good tool for beginning and intermediate editors and people will easily produce very entertaining projects and even movies because it is technically feasible if you find workarounds. Maybe people will even set up FCP X productions studios because they plan on configuring one “virtual local machine” that everyone has access to because they have Thunderbolt * Light Peak connections.
If all of their media is going to the internet then FCP X will more than suffice and they will have fun. Maybe a third party app will hook in and expand the Events transitions and the controls on such transitions. Once the third-party geniuses show up they will expand FCP X beyond its current limitations, unless Apple wants to thwart this for some silly reason.
I, meanwhile, am going to Adobe. They look like fun, have 64 bit gpl processing, and seem committed to the Professional market for a least a few more years.