Have you ever wondered: “Why doesn’t Apple just build [x]?” Or read a headline saying that “Apple Needs to Add This Critical Hardware Feature?” Only to see that nothing happens. Or, on the flip side, wondered why there are so many rumors about upcoming products long before those products actually appear?
Well, about those rumors, a few are true, others are simply wishful thinking, while the majority are click-bait in search of an audience. But, in spite of Apple’s legendary leak-prevention teams, the nature – and size – of hardware development today makes leaks almost inevitable.
Why? Because of the long lead times in hardware development.
Creating new chips and computer hardware takes years, not months. Yes, there is variation. Iterating an existing design takes less time than creating something totally new. Still, new product design is measured with a calendar, not a stopwatch.
NOTE: Software design is faster, but major apps still take multiple years to develop.
NEW CHIP DESIGN TIMELINE
New chips, like the M-series Apple silicon, follow a design process similar to this:
This whole process, in general, takes four years. The design of an SoC, like the M4, is fully locked a year before manufacturing starts, except to fix critical problems. Manufacturing generally takes 3-5 months to make enough units to begin inserting into computer manufacturing; plus another six months to manufacture the computer.
As I write this, near the end of August, 2024, here’s, roughly, where Apple is on new chip releases:
M4. In mass manufacturing
M5. In hardware testing – release: 2025
M6. In prototyping – release: 2026
M7. In design – release: 2027
M8. In detailed planning – release: 2028
M9. There’s already a team researching what this needs to do.
NEW COMPUTER DESIGN TIMELINE
Computer design is far more than deciding the color of the case. It is thinking about what features the computer needs to support, which components are needed to deliver those features, how those components fit together, and how they interact. Oh! And how to keep the unit cool enough to actually use while still preserving battery life.
We may think of a computer as a single “thing,” but there are hundreds of individual components inside that all need to work together seamlessly in the available space.
Computer design starts 3-4 years before release. At that time, Apple is making their best guesses about what features they need to support, which chips will be available by the time manufacturing starts that provide those features, and how those chips will integrate together.
NOTE: We saw the result of missed guesses in the Mac delays caused by Intel not able to hit its own deadlines for the new CPUs Apple needed for new hardware. These delays were one of the major factors behind Apple creating their own Apple silicon chips.
Computer design follows similar steps to chip design, except that actual manufacturing can’t start until all the chips that go into it are ready:
For example, phones or computers that ship in September are in mass production no later than April or early May. This allows time for manufacturing, shipping and distribution to stores and online outlets. It is impossible to make any changes to a hardware design less than a year before release.
SUMMARY
Designing new hardware occurs 3-4 years before those new products are released. Last minute changes are simply not possible. We should always make suggestions. Feedback is incredibly important in determining product direction and fixing problems. However, implementing those suggestions is almost never quick.
In this overview, I have vastly simplified the incredibly complex challenge of creating and manufacturing devices that we take for granted in our daily work. But it puts into perspective how much time and effort is required to make even small changes.
