Insiders Speak: The Coming Impact of AI on Media & Post

Posted on by Larry

If you’ve been reading my newsletters for a while, you’ll know that I’m skeptical about whether AI will benefit those of us in media production and post. I’m especially troubled by the potential for lost income and jobs. But I only have my perspective on this issue.

So, to learn more, I emailed more than a dozen developers and industry leaders. (I also contacted Apple and Adobe, but they chose not to respond.)

Here was my question: What will be the impact of AI (however you define that) on media creators currently earning a living in either media production or post over the next couple of years? My focus with this question is not just on the impact of AI, but whether AI will enhance jobs or replace them.

Here are my concerns that I included for their response.

From my perspective, AI is going to have a significant, and negative, impact on the finances of media creators over the next couple of years. NOT because media is going away, nor because new media won’t be created. Rather, AI will make it easier for everyone to create high-quality media without understanding how media “works.”

This means that skills that used to be in demand – and well paid – are not worth as much. For creative artists of all types, jobs will diminish, competition will increase, budgets will go down, and with AI “hoovering up” all their creative content without permission, a simple text prompt will quickly generate nearly identical copies of their work, essentially for free.

COMMENTATORS


Macalope, MacWorld satirist (Jan. 7, 2025)

So much of AI revolves around how to put someone out of a job…. [The Macalope] does see great potential in AI long-term. The problem is less AI than it is the people trying to ram it into everything to make a buck. When it becomes clear what is going to work and what isn’t – basically when the technology becomes as boring as touch screens and tapping to pay for something – maybe we can enjoy it more.


Sam Bogoch, CEO & Co-founder, Axle.ai (Jan. 11, 2025)

The impact of AI will be widespread, with different implications for various roles in the M&E ecosystem at different points in the future.

At the ‘base of the pyramid’, i.e. simple editing of content like podcasts and talking heads, AI is likely to automate out a significant numbers of jobs. It’s even possible that onscreen presentation talent will start to be replaced by convincing AI avatars.

At the high end, i.e. in feature film and television production, AI will be a decentralizing force, making it much easier for a geographically distributed talent pool. Think about traditional VFX costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, versus getting impressive video results from an affordable LLM prompt. This will very likely keep accelerating the movement of high-end content production away from traditional centers like LA and London, and will open up possibilities for many more sources and types of content. It will likely drive the costs of video production down overall, but some good opportunities will still exist in a restructuring industry.

And in the midrange – including corporate media, churches, sports teams and government video – the rate of growth in recent years has been tremendous, driven largely by the increasing use of video for social media. We see AI and machine learning as a huge enabler here, making it possible to efficiently repurpose both recently-captured and legacy footage for marketing purposes.

All of these predictions have a 2- to 3-year horizon; the pace of progress is so rapid in AI today that there’s just no telling where we will be later in the decade. The path from intention to output will be much shorter; for instance, screenwriters may be able to input a script and receive a pre-visualization quality show or movie with quick turnaround times. At that point, many skilled workers will need to shift their work roles to guiding, curating and refining the resulting torrent of output.

When desktop publishing was first made available in the late 1980’s, skilled print designers often went from carefully crafted work, to helping beginners avoid “the ransom note look” where a proliferation of fonts could make normal documents look cluttered, random and pretty terrible overall. I see a similar possibility, with directors, writers, editors, and actors shifting to oversee and improve the 1000x or higher volume of new content being produced by the new AI-powered tools.


Gary Adcock, Digital Consultant – Media (Jan. 6, 2025)

I don’t think AI is inherently good or bad, but how we use it is a different story. I’ve had many conversations with artists and craftspeople over the past few years about AI, and I’m tired of the people who think the world is going to end because of it.

Technological advancement continues unabated, and time remains relentless. Individuals with a keen interest in artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies will be well-positioned to maintain their careers in this evolving landscape. However, for those who choose to remain passive and express discontent about the changes may find themselves in need of alternative employment opportunities sooner than later. This represents a pivotal juncture in media & entertainment, characterized by the potential for a gradual evolution or a more pronounced revolution of the tools and techniques we use.

There will always be individuals who are reticent to change, regardless of its necessity. They ignore the widespread impact of machine learning on their daily lives. The current concept of “AI” is not technologically distinct from the personalized recommendations provided by Amazon or the driving directions offered by Apple Maps and Google Maps.

If you harbor concern about the potential impact of AI and its widespread use, consider taking some proactive steps to mitigate its influence on your daily life. Disable the autocorrect feature on your phone, refrain from utilizing Siri or Alexa as virtual assistants, avoid online shopping, and exercise caution when allowing apps to curate your online experience.

Artificial Intelligence will not eliminate my job, but it will significantly simplify and expedite many tasks, enabling me to deliver quality content to my clients more efficiently. Throughout history, we have experienced similar advancements, from digital video cameras to DSLRs, from analog video tapes to tapeless recording. Despite these technological transformations, we continue to evolve and create content at an astonishing pace. I doubt AI will be able to eliminate our creativity any more than the advent of video would make film obsolete.


Philip Hodgetts, Co-founder Lumberjack System (Jan. 8, 2025)

As I was reading Larry’s thoughts I was confused. Everything Larry was talking about – an even more democratized video production universe – I was considering to be a great positive. Yet Larry was considering them a negative, and Larry’s opinion I respect.

The crux of this dichotomy is our “unshared” history. Larry and I have had different experiences as to what “the industry” is. Coming from the TV industry and live production Larry naturally focuses on the affects of AI on that segment of the industry. Coming from the other end of the production spectrum, I’ve always struggled to add production value when there is no production budget!

I’ve always gravitated to technology that does that. An early adopter of Fairlight’s Computer Video Instrument (Yes, that Fairlight) and Media 100, I jumped to technology that let me make better quality videos for my clients and our in-house production company, within the budgets we had. That leads me to see the opportunities that AI has already created for small team content creators as a great way to fulfill the goal of adding production value.

Since the advent of DV and Final Cut Pro 1, the number of people creating content at all levels has exploded. As the barriers to the technology came down more people were freed to tell their stories visually. At the time Final Cut Pro 1 (Classic) was released, the Final Cut Pro product manager was quoted as saying that they would sell “20,000” copies in the first two years, They sold 10x that in those two years and ultimate over 100 times that estimate. Almost none were to the markets they expected to sell to, as a “Media Compose light”! These were all new creators.

That’s why AI’s ability to empower that without requiring a deep apprenticeship is a strong plus. That AI will reduce the number of jobs in an industry that has long been dwarfed by the wider “content creation” industry is unfortunate but really only continuing a trend. The number of people required to run a in-studio live production has dropped dramatically.

Hundreds of thousands of people have grown up without the “get a filmmaking degree, start in Hollywood” to begin their creative career. Right now more money is being made by content creators than by all the IATSE members make collectively. More creators are making a decent living out of their social media than there are teachers across the entire K-College spectrum.

AI empowers these creatives. Many, many, more of them using a medium we all love to tell their stories. None of which diminishes our skills as storytellers. Craft skills have always changed and evolved. The successful adapt as the needs change.

I share Larry’s concerns about entry positions into traditional crafts and the devaluation of skill. In many ways it reminds me of Isaac Asimov’s “Profession”. Unable to be programmed the normal way, the protagonist has to go through the hard path of learning, thinking he is in some way defective. Plot twist, it’s because he is one of the truly creative class who ultimately drive the society forward.

Be that person. Be the creative spirit that drives the industry forward.


Mike Cavanagh, CEO Key Code Media (Jan. 6, 2025)

I believe AI will have only a minor impact in 2025. My perspective is based on the excitement around exploring different post-production solutions in 2024 and the corresponding disappointment in actual integration.

While I won’t name specific companies, there are still too many gaps, clunky workflows, and limited interfaces for AI-driven tagging, asset management, or automation to gain widespread trust in production. Adobe is likely to remain the leader in AI integration, with Avid trailing behind but having a focus to improve.

The best-case scenario for AI integration will be seamless functionality within editorial applications. One company worth watching is Quickture, which offers rough-cut automation, instant summaries, and guided revisions that integrate well with Premiere Pro and Avid Media Composer.


Boris Yamnitsky, CEO, BorisFX (Jan. 7, 2025)

Obviously, I’ve thought a lot about this as it affects software creators such as myself, as well as video and media creators – my customers.

Even though my job as a CEO is to see the future, this question is the most puzzling. I am taking an optimistic approach and tend to think that over all AI will make a positive impact on the artists. We already see tremendous improvements in the most tedious workflows such as Roto made possible by AI. This means less grunt work and more time for creative aspects of media post production.

As far as AI models making creative decisions, I do not believe these are terribly interesting. Humans tend to like to see what other humans do. Machine made product will remain what it is – machine made. For example: I like oriental rugs. We have a number in our house. Not exactly a collection, but we only buy handmade antique rugs. New machine-made rugs are perfect, but to us not very interesting. I like to think what goes into production of a handmade rug and enjoy all unique imperfections and shapes.

I am surprised by the alarm people raise over rapid development of AI. It is a very powerful technology. Disruptive as any new tech. But disruption drives human progress. To build anything new one must destroy something old. There are winners and losers and ultimately there will be more winners. Was introduction of NLEs in the 90ties good for our industry and for people who work there? Remember, so much equipment became obsolete and some skills became unnecessary. Same could be said about GPUs in the 2000s and cloud computing in more recent times. We can’t stop the train, instead, we better hop on it.

For chuckles, I asked Claude.ai – my favorite chat bot – the same question. As it turns out we think alike. Some concerns but overall – very positive. I also asked what should Boris FX company do to grow business and the answers clearly showed that I myself can be replaced by AI in my job.

FWIW


Dan May, President, Blackmagic Design, Americas (Jan. 10, 2025)

We believe that the ultimate power of AI is how it helps enable creators, not replace them. Our DaVinci Neural Engine uses state of the art deep neural networks, machine learning and AI to provide simple tools that solve complex, repetitive and time consuming problems. For example, in the latest version of DaVinci Resolve Studio, the DaVinci Neural Engine powers UltraNR, a new denoise mode that can dramatically reduce digital noise from a frame while maintaining image clarity. The goal of DaVinci Resolve Studio’s AI-based tools is to allow filmmakers to spend more time on the creative and less time on the mundane tasks that are necessary to the process but that could easily be streamlined with smarter tools. Why click four buttons when you can click one?

By harnessing these tools, filmmakers will be able to invest their time on the creative parts of post where they can truly leave their mark, which will hopefully result in more impactful projects and more marketable skills. We are not here to replace creativity, we’re here to empower it.

While folks rightfully have questions regarding AI, this isn’t a new development for us. We first incorporated the DaVinci Neural Engine in 2019 with DaVinci Resolve Studio 16, using it to power speed warp motion estimation for retiming, super scale for up-scaling footage, auto color and color matching, and facial recognition. Those tools have saved creators substantial time over the years, and we can’t wait to see what’s next for our users.


Kevin Riley, Chief Technology Officer, Avid (Aug. 2024)

At a high level, when we think about AI, the overarching theme is about how we leverage this technology to drive automation and simplify tasks – meaning that creators can focus more on the creative process.

With that in mind, Avid is focused on the ‘bookends’ of the workflow. At the creative front end, this is about content preparation and organizing assets and content that are relevant to the task, or the story that a news broadcast or news agent is trying to tell.

We are also focused on the publishing side at the back end: once you’re mostly done with a project, how you get it sent out to distribution, wrap the project, clean it up, and then archive it with the right metadata so it can be found later and repurposed if necessary.

Our customers are comfortable with these use cases as they address operational efficiency and increase the speed of the creative process.”


Craig Wilson, Product Evangelist – Video and Media at Avid (Sept 2024)

Avid is working to deliver new AI services for customers. Focusing on transcription initially, Avid is enabling customers to easily generate transcriptions automatically or manually, making content easier to find, use and repurpose. This is powered by Avid Ada, our framework for delivering innovative AI solutions across our product portfolio.

Customers want to use AI to enable their staff, and we are supporting them with our Responsible AI approach, with AI as the co-pilot, assisting editorial teams to more efficiently carry out their work.”


Mark Spencer, Creative Partner, Ripple Training (Jan. 9, 2025)

I really don’t know what the impact will be except to say that there will be multiple, large impacts in ways we have yet to comprehend. My advice to everyone (in media production or otherwise frankly) is to get educated on what is happening, experiment with the tools, and think about how you can position yourself to benefit from the changes that are coming.

As they say, “AI won’t take your job….someone using AI will take your job”.

Larry Jordan – Summary

It is fascinating to me the range of opinions on AI – from “the world is ending” to “every day will be better than the day before.” Both are probably correct, which is simply aggravating…! There is no doubt that, while our world is irrevocably changing, media is going to easily survive and grow. My concern is whether those of us who are currently working in the industry will be able to continue making a living in it.

Color me skeptical, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t hope. I agree with Philip that each of us sees the world from our own unique perspective. I also agree with Gary and Mark – learn what tools are out there. Learn where new competition may be coming from. Continue building stronger relationships with clients. Look for new or better ways to tell stories.

Finally, don’t define yourself based on the tools you use, but what you do with those tools.


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7 Responses to Insiders Speak: The Coming Impact of AI on Media & Post

  1. Great panel, great read. Thanks for including my thoughts

    • Larry says:

      Mike:

      You are most welcome. Your thoughts are always insightful and worth reading. Not just on AI, but media and technology in general. Thanks for sharing your time.

      Larry

  2. Derek Roff says:

    Throughout history, change has destroyed the livelihoods of some people, while enhancing those of others. However, not only is the pace accelerating, but there are qualitative differences in our era. More and more economic planners are talking about creating a guaranteed national income, because the economy needs consumers, but it hasn’t figured out a way to provide meaningful work at decent salaries, for an increasingly large portion of the population.

    Until we figure this out, we are moving toward increased virtual serfdom, with increasing income inequality. I fear that the example of Uber is one that we will see repeated in many other industries, such as media production, where currently people can earn a decent living. Uber created a few billionaires, while the people doing the driving and providing the direct services earn less than the meager minimum wage, with no benefits. Millions of people are making tens to hundreds of dollars a month on independent content creation for social media. That may be fun for many of them, but a tiny fraction makes a living wage.

    When good quality matters enough for people to pay for it, salaries go up. When ‘not very good’ is good enough, jobs are lost and salaries go down. I agree with Larry, that the latter seems to be the phase we are entering concerning media work. I feel a lot of compassion for all those who are being squeezed into more marginal situations by the unbalanced changes in our society and our industry.

  3. Gayle C. says:

    Great words, Larry. I completely align with Mark Spencer’s way of thinking. Nicely put, sir. I’m not a put my head in the sand kind of person, so I’m all for keeping my finger on the pulse of how AI evolves with respect to our industry. I’m going to continue to keep my eyes open, never shy away from all the info and changes that are forthcoming, and do my best to continue to be a creative force in my work. We may not, as you say Larry, be paid as much in the future but I’m going to continue down this road as far as I can go. This was truly inspired writing, all!

  4. Great summary Larry.

    The impact of A.I. will continue to be the great disruptor in many technology fields. This reminds me of my early NLE days with the Amiga’s NewTek “Video Toaster” (which at the time was considered way ahead of its time as compared to other video production systems). The Video Toaster was released in December 1990, while Final Cut Pro (with the help of Apple) became available around the same time. The Video Toaster won the Emmy Award for Technical Achievement in 1993. However, as the Amiga platform lost market share, Commodore went bankrupt in 1994, and the Video Toaster was moved to the Microsoft Windows platform. NewTek was acquired by Vizrt in 2005 and introduced TriCaster -a product that merges live video switching, broadcast graphics, etc. into an integrated, portable and compact appliance.

    The history of software/hardware systems has always been based on their ability to innovate in a timely fashion. For example, even though Job’s NeXT system was a great computer, the slow integration of software applications and the inability for developers to adopt quickly, killed the system. When platforms start off with an innovative edge, but don’t adopt to change quickly, they die. Of course, corporate culture, politics, and overall vision can also accelerate this death.

    Technology adoption is one thing, but now we have Deep Learning and Generative AI to deal with. Will we see the same with other NLE platforms or systems when A.I. matures? Unlike chip design graphic efficiencies or high computing performance advances, A.I. is a different type of algorithmic beast. That monster is still growing with tentacles stretching across many areas of our technology and creative domains.

    “Those who don’t innovate risk being outpaced, outsmarted, and disrupted”

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