[ This is the second part of a two-part article looking at 2014 and what it means for the media industry in 2015.]
NOTE: Click here to read Part 1 of this article.
5. Broadcast TV and cable distribution are not going away, but more and more high-quality programs will make their first appearance on the web. However, making sufficient money to support high-quality programming via web distribution won’t happen in 2015. The big money still rests with broadcast and cable.
Use the web to build an audience, then leverage that audience either via web-based subscription, or traditional cable and broadcast distribution. Provided you’ve got the money to fund the start-up, the web is a great programming test bed.
6. The line between production and post-production will continue to blur. Companies will increasing seek to provide both production and post services through acquisition and expansion. Corollary: Small companies are more likely to survive than big ones because small companies can respond faster to industry changes.
7. High resolution is the trend of the future – from cameras through distribution. Whether most of us need it, or can even use it, is the elephant in the room that no one is talking about.
As Mike Horton noted, “everyone is talking 4K.” Michael Kammes stressed that, with all the new 4K gear, there will be a “rise in really bad 4K” and, in spite of bold marketing promises, broadcasting 4K will be non-existent. The Internet will be the primary delivery vehicle for high-resolution images.
Ned Soltz also feels that the reign of DSLR cameras to achieve a “cinematic look” is winding down. Existing video camera manufacturers are releasing products that are easier to use, require less out-board gear and create similar looks.
8. Industry change will continue to accelerate. Manufacturers are desperately afraid they will miss on the “Next Big Thing.” Except, they don’t know what it is until it’s here. So, to be safe, they are moving in all directions at once.
However, there is a growing push back from media professionals to manufacturers who insist on changing standards faster than most people change their socks. For example, we are seeing a demand that all professional devices support ProRes, plus whatever proprietary format the manufacturer is pushing this week.
Michael Kammes made the point that standardization will continue to elude us, manufacturers will try to leverage proprietary systems to lock in customers and that custom workflows will be the norm in the coming year.
Ned Soltz said he is seeing a clear trend where customers are increasingly reluctant to buy anything new for fear that it will be obsolete in a couple of months.
This means you need to plan on faster obsolescence of core products. It isn’t that your tools will stop working. Just the opposite, in fact. Gear will last longer than ever. But the rate of change will obsolete the technology long before the equipment itself stops working mechanically.
9. A major developer of video editing software – who’s name begins with an “A” – will release a major new upgrade during 2015. OK, so that’s a gimme. But there’s been a lot of hand-wringing this year that [insert name of company here] is giving up on the market because they haven’t updated [ insert name of software here ] for the last [insert time duration here].
Development takes time. Much though we would like major updates to our software every week, that just isn’t possible. Currently, Apple, Adobe, and Avid are all releasing major updates several times a year. That amazing track record is faster than anything we’ve ever seen before. I expect the rate of change in key media software will continue to accelerate.
This is both good and bad. Yes, we’ll get new features on a regular basis, but it will be increasingly difficult to learn how to use them before the next release changes “everything.” Annual operating system updates only make this learning curve more confusing, as we try to integrate different systems each running different versions of the OS with different versions of software.
Everything we didn’t like about 2014 is about to get worse in 2015. On the other hand, everything we liked about 2014 will probably continue.
As media professionals, we have two options: give up or gear up. If you are someone who is most comfortable when everything around them is stable and steady, then media is the wrong industry to be in right now. Because “stable” is a word that no longer applies.
Our survival rests in constant learning, constant marketing, constantly seeking new ways to do things to make the most of the gear and skills that we already have.
Media is a team sport – our industry has long been one of partnerships and relationships. That has never been more true than today. Partner with people who know what you don’t. That way, you both learn from each other. At the same time, create a relationship with your clients. Enable them to stay in touch with their customers and they’ll provide you the money you need to continue to grow and learn.
2014 was an amazing year – both good and bad. I fully expect 2015 to be the same – only more so.